{
  "system": "speculation-tracking-system",
  "version": "1.0",
  "generated": "2026-08-01",
  "disclaimer": "Market research and educational analysis, not personalised financial advice. Scores are this system's own assessment of narrative and research interest, not forecasts of return. Company names are examples of where a market narrative is being expressed, not endorsements. No live market data is used.",
  "field_definitions": {
    "narrative_strength": "integer 1-5. 5 = externally driven by policy, physics or verified demand, visible across many unrelated sources. 1 = no coherent narrative.",
    "analyst_sentiment": "integer 1-5. Published, named analyst opinion. Attribution required. 2 or below where coverage is thin or largely sponsored.",
    "hedge_fund_interest": "integer 1-5. Positioning evidence from 13F, prime brokerage and fund commentary. Read in both directions: 5 means informed agreement AND a crowded exit; 1 with a high narrative score is what Emergent stage looks like.",
    "catalyst": "Next dated event. If no date exists, dated=false and date=null. Never write 'soon' or 'H2'.",
    "risk_tier": "Assigned on structure - liquidity, disclosure, revenue, dilution history - never on price performance.",
    "volatility_profile": "Observed behaviour, so a 30% move can be read as normal or abnormal. Volatility raises the risk tier; it never raises the score.",
    "theme_alignment": "Test: if the theme plays out exactly as described, does this specific entity capture value?"
  },
  "enums": {
    "categories": [
      "AI Infrastructure",
      "AI Software",
      "Frontier Tech",
      "EV / Autonomy",
      "Energy Storage",
      "Biotech",
      "Moonshots"
    ],
    "catalyst_type": [
      "scheduled_binary",
      "scheduled_mechanical",
      "policy",
      "corporate_action",
      "emergent"
    ],
    "risk_tier": ["low", "low-medium", "medium", "medium-high", "high", "extreme"],
    "volatility_profile": ["low", "medium", "high", "very-high"],
    "source_tier": ["A", "B", "C", "D"],
    "status": ["active", "watch", "retired"],
    "lifecycle_stage": ["latent", "emergent", "acceleration", "saturation", "decay"]
  },
  "validation_rules": [
    "narrative_strength, analyst_sentiment and hedge_fund_interest must be integers 1-5",
    "if catalyst.dated is false then catalyst.date must be null",
    "every entry in narratives[] must carry a non-empty attribution string",
    "a narrative claim supported only by source_tier C is invalid as evidence of fact",
    "source_tier D must never be used to support any claim",
    "tickers[].filings_url must point at an exchange announcements page or a regulator filing system",
    "broker, trading-platform, affiliate and purchase URLs are invalid anywhere in this file",
    "an entry may hold exactly one primary category; genuine cross-category exposure is split into separate entries"
  ],
  "update_cadence": {
    "daily": { "time": "06:30 AWST", "fields": ["catalyst", "new entrants"] },
    "weekly": { "day": "Monday", "fields": ["catalyst calendar", "narrative_strength"] },
    "monthly": { "day": "first business day", "fields": ["hedge_fund_interest", "analyst_sentiment", "risk_tier"] },
    "quarterly": { "trigger": "post-earnings", "fields": ["lifecycle_stage", "theme_alignment", "retirements"] },
    "annual": { "month": "January", "fields": ["category set", "field definitions"] }
  },
  "entries": [
    {
      "id": "ai-infra-power-thermal",
      "name": "Power & thermal suppliers",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "VRT", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=VRT" },
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "ETN", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=ETN" },
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "TT", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=TT" }
      ],
      "category": "AI Infrastructure",
      "narrative_strength": 5,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 4,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Q3 2026 earnings and capex commentary", "date": "2026-08-15", "dated": true, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "low-medium",
      "volatility_profile": "medium",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "Power and cooling is the currently binding constraint of the AI buildout" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "The AI bottleneck has moved from chips to electricity and cooling capacity", "attribution": "Morgan Stanley; BlackRock", "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/powering-ai-energy-market-outlook-2026", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Global data-centre power demand rises 27% in 2026 to about 132 GW", "attribution": "Ropes & Gray data-centre investment review", "source_url": "https://www.ropesgray.com/en/insights/viewpoints/102mvfl/data-center-investment-in-2026-ai-demand-power-constraints-and-private-equity", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infra-semicap",
      "name": "Semiconductor capital equipment",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "LRCX", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=LRCX" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "AMAT", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=AMAT" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "ASML", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=ASML" }
      ],
      "category": "AI Infrastructure",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 5,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Q3 2026 earnings; hyperscaler capex guidance", "date": "2026-08-15", "dated": true, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "low",
      "volatility_profile": "high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "high", "note": "Exposed to total industry capacity expansion rather than any one architecture winning" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Hedge funds entered Q2 2026 with a record ~10% long weight in semiconductors; Lam Research, Applied Materials, Analog Devices, Micron and Intel rose most in popularity", "attribution": "Goldman Sachs hedge-fund positioning report", "source_url": "https://openthemagazine.com/business/hedge-funds-double-down-on-ai-stocks-as-chipmakers-become-wall-streets-biggest-bet", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "AI stocks face a new risk as hedge-fund leverage unwinds", "attribution": "Forbes, 30 July 2026", "source_url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2026/07/30/ai-stocks-face-a-new-risk-as-hedge-fund-leverage-unwinds/", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "SpaceX and Tesla's Terafab chip megaproject in Texas has added Intel as a third named partner, with commentary describing the initial $16.8bn as only the first phase of a buildout that could reach $119bn in total, and SpaceX separately confirming it will build its own natural gas power plants to supply the site", "attribution": "Simply Wall St; Timothy Sykes market coverage", "source_url": "https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/telecom/nasdaq-spcx/space-exploration-technologies/news/spacex-spcx-unveils-168-billion-terafab-and-a-new-mobile-net", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "saturation",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-10",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infra-asx-datacentre",
      "name": "Grid-connected ASX data-centre operators",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "NXT", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/NXT" },
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "MAQ", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/MAQ" },
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "MP1", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/MP1" }
      ],
      "category": "AI Infrastructure",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Contracted utilisation and forward order book updates", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "corporate_action" },
      "risk_tier": "medium",
      "volatility_profile": "medium",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "high", "note": "The scarce asset is an energisable site with a secured grid connection, not equipment" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "NextDC contracted utilisation grew 29% to 316 MW with forward order book up 53% to 205 MW; operators holding secured grid connections have a structural advantage", "attribution": "Kalkine; Australian Stock Report", "source_url": "https://kalkine.com.au/news/technology/can-nextdc-asxnxt-sustain-growth-through-data-centre-demand-and-ai-adoption", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-software-data-layer",
      "name": "Enterprise data layer",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "SNOW", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=SNOW" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "MDB", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=MDB" }
      ],
      "category": "AI Software",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Quarterly results; consumption growth metrics", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "low-medium",
      "volatility_profile": "high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "Models may commoditise but the enterprise data estate does not" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Snowflake expanded a $6bn five-year AWS agreement focused on generative and agentic AI infrastructure", "attribution": "Analytics Insight; Barchart", "source_url": "https://www.analyticsinsight.net/stocks/best-ai-software-stocks-2026-palantir-vs-snowflake-vs-mongodb-compared", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Consumption-based models scale with usage but are more sensitive to a spending slowdown than upfront-licence models", "attribution": "IBTimes AU competitor analysis", "source_url": "https://www.ibtimes.com.au/top-5-best-palantir-competitors-2026-led-databricks-snowflake-microsoft-fabric-data-ai-platforms-1865435", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "emergent",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-software-underowned",
      "name": "Software is under-owned (contrarian positioning thesis)",
      "tickers": [],
      "category": "AI Software",
      "narrative_strength": 3,
      "analyst_sentiment": 2,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 1,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Q3 2026 13F filings", "date": "2026-11-14", "dated": true, "type": "scheduled_mechanical" },
      "risk_tier": "medium",
      "volatility_profile": "high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "Positioning and fundamentals are pointing in opposite directions; divergence is the thesis" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Software fell to about 6% of hedge-fund long portfolios, the lowest since 2019, while semiconductors hit a record ~10%", "attribution": "Goldman Sachs hedge-fund positioning report", "source_url": "https://openthemagazine.com/business/hedge-funds-double-down-on-ai-stocks-as-chipmakers-become-wall-streets-biggest-bet", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "AI-native application spend rose 108% year over year; agentic AI SaaS growing at a 46.8% CAGR", "attribution": "Zylo 2026 SaaS Management Index, via SaaS Mag", "source_url": "https://www.saasmag.com/how-saas-companies-monetizing-ai-agents/", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "emergent",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-software-applied-pltr",
      "name": "Applied AI decision platforms",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "PLTR", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=PLTR" }
      ],
      "category": "AI Software",
      "narrative_strength": 5,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 3,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Quarterly earnings; government contract announcements", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "medium",
      "volatility_profile": "very-high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "high", "note": "Value accrues to deployment into a specific workflow with a contract attached; the multiple is the risk, not the business" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Analysts expect earnings growth of about 95% in 2026 and 42% in 2027 against roughly 65x forward earnings; consensus Moderate Buy with 19 of 28 analysts at Strong Buy", "attribution": "Barchart analyst survey", "source_url": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2197151/palantir-vs-snowflake-only-1-ai-software-stock-looks-strong-for-the-next-decade", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-robotaxi-commercialisation",
      "name": "Robotaxi commercialisation",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "UBER", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=UBER" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "LCID", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=LCID" }
      ],
      "category": "EV / Autonomy",
      "narrative_strength": 5,
      "analyst_sentiment": 4,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 3,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Commercial robotaxi rollout in San Francisco; Uber separately targeting 15 cities by year-end 2026", "date": "2026-12-31", "dated": true, "type": "corporate_action" },
      "risk_tier": "medium-high",
      "volatility_profile": "high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "Converts autonomy from a capability question into a unit-economics question analysts can model" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Uber revealed a robotaxi developed with Lucid and Nuro on the Lucid Gravity SUV, designed for Level 4 autonomy with a 450-mile range and commercial rollout in San Francisco later in 2026; robotaxis are graduating from concept showcases to commercial operation", "attribution": "Global Fleet, CES 2026 coverage", "source_url": "https://www.globalfleet.com/en/manufacturers/north-america/features/ces-2026-mobility-innovation-all-about-ai-and-autonomy", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Uber is reportedly targeting autonomous ride-hailing operations in 15 cities by the end of 2026, while Waymo is exploring an exit from its Uber operating deal to launch independently in markets such as Austin and Atlanta once its contract permits in January 2028, amid a described deterioration in the relationship over service quality and routing disputes", "attribution": "TechCrunch Mobility", "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/02/techcrunch-mobility-two-roads-diverged-for-robotaxis/", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-10",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "energy-solid-state",
      "name": "Solid-state batteries",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "SLDP", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=SLDP" },
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "QS", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=QS" }
      ],
      "category": "Energy Storage",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 2,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "OEM qualification announcements; EVE Energy 100 MWh all-solid-state capacity", "date": "2026-12-31", "dated": true, "type": "corporate_action" },
      "risk_tier": "high",
      "volatility_profile": "very-high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "high", "note": "First capacity is going to humanoids, low-altitude aircraft and AI devices - energy-density niches, not mass-market EVs" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "EVE Energy delivering 100 MWh annual capacity for its 10Ah all-solid-state cell by December 2026, aimed at humanoid robots, low-altitude aircraft and AI devices", "attribution": "TMTPost", "source_url": "https://en.tmtpost.com/post/7692327", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Mobile robotics on current lithium-ion typically achieve 1-4 hours of operation with battery weight at 20-40% of system mass", "attribution": "Frontiers in Batteries and Electrochemistry", "source_url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/batteries-and-electrochemistry/articles/10.3389/fbael.2026.1873385/full", "source_tier": "A" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "emergent",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "energy-uranium-developers",
      "name": "ASX uranium developers",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "BOE", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/BOE" },
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "PDN", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/PDN" },
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "DYL", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/DYL" },
        { "exchange": "ASX", "code": "BMN", "filings_url": "https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/BMN" }
      ],
      "category": "Energy Storage",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 3,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Utility contracting rounds", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "corporate_action" },
      "risk_tier": "medium",
      "volatility_profile": "high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "Sits in the decarbonisation and AI-power narratives simultaneously; dual narrative is more durable but also two ways to be crowded" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Uranium spot stabilised around US$84-86/lb in June 2026 with Citi analysts projecting US$100-125/lb through the rest of the year", "attribution": "Citi, via Kalkine", "source_url": "https://kalkinemedia.com/au/stocks/artificial-intelligence/asx-ai-stocks-data-centres-power-the-2026-market-shift", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "biotech-ai-drug-discovery",
      "name": "AI drug discovery",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "RXRX", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=RXRX" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "VRTX", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=VRTX" }
      ],
      "category": "Biotech",
      "narrative_strength": 4,
      "analyst_sentiment": 3,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Clinical trial readouts for AI-derived candidates", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "high",
      "volatility_profile": "very-high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "very high", "note": "The only category in the frontier bucket with a countable metric: AI-derived candidates in clinical pipeline" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "First AI-derived drugs entered trials as of 2025, with Vertex working with Recursion on an AI-derived small molecule; analysts now track AI-derived candidates in clinical pipeline as a trend indicator", "attribution": "IntuitionLabs", "source_url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/ai-biologics-discovery-pharma-investment-trends", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "emergent",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-01",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "moonshot-humanoid-robotics",
      "name": "Humanoid robotics exposure",
      "tickers": [],
      "category": "Moonshots",
      "narrative_strength": 5,
      "analyst_sentiment": 3,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Platform milestones and funding rounds", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "emergent" },
      "risk_tier": "high",
      "volatility_profile": "very-high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "medium", "note": "Listed early exposure is usually to suppliers or narrative, not to the platforms; credible platforms are largely identified and privately funded" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Analysts describe 2026 as the decade of the robot, with the humanoid market growing from $2-3bn today to $200bn by 2035 and potentially one of the biggest opportunities in the AI revolution", "attribution": "CNBC, citing Wall Street commentary", "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/humanoid-robots-trillion-dollar-ai-market.html", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "As of July 2026 humanoid robotics looks more like a scaling market than a seed-formation market, with funding dominated by follow-on rounds to already-screened companies; government programmes in France, South Korea and Japan are material co-investors", "attribution": "New Market Pitch funding analysis", "source_url": "https://newmarketpitch.com/blogs/news/humanoid-robotics-funding-analysis", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Wall Street sees a multitrillion-dollar humanoid robot market, with the accessible listed exposure running through component suppliers such as TE Connectivity and Regal Rexnord rather than the platform developers themselves; a related robotics rally saw Vishay Precision Group, a precision-sensor supplier, up roughly 140% year-to-date", "attribution": "The Motley Fool; 24/7 Wall St.", "source_url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/08/wall-street-sees-a-multi-trillion-dollar-humanoid/", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "acceleration",
      "first_logged": "2026-08-01",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-10",
      "status": "active"
    },
    {
      "id": "moonshot-quantum",
      "name": "Quantum computing pure-plays",
      "tickers": [
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "IONQ", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=IONQ" },
        { "exchange": "NASDAQ", "code": "RGTI", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=RGTI" },
        { "exchange": "NYSE", "code": "QBTS", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&ticker=QBTS" }
      ],
      "category": "Moonshots",
      "narrative_strength": 3,
      "analyst_sentiment": 2,
      "hedge_fund_interest": 2,
      "catalyst": { "next_event": "Full cluster now resolved: IonQ beat and raised guidance, shares +0.93% after hours (5 Aug); Rigetti roughly in-line ($5.09m rev vs $5.13m guided, EPS -$0.05 matched estimate), shares -3% (6 Aug); D-Wave missed on both lines ($3.07m rev vs $4.03m consensus, EPS -$0.13 vs -$0.09 est), shares -10.5% premarket (6 Aug). Next dated catalyst is each company's Q3 2026 report, not yet scheduled.", "date": null, "dated": false, "type": "scheduled_binary" },
      "risk_tier": "medium",
      "volatility_profile": "very-high",
      "theme_alignment": { "strength": "medium", "note": "Tracked on the main watchlist as a saturation-stage example; minimal revenue against a story about the 2030s" },
      "narratives": [
        { "claim": "Quantum pure-plays carry a speculative premium on a 2030s story rather than a rerating of validated business models; 30-50% swings are routine", "attribution": "This system's own assessment, see spec.md 1.4", "source_url": "https://thejzl.com/Speculations_Investing/spec.md", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "IonQ's record Q2 beat and raised guidance produced a sub-1% after-hours share move despite options pricing implying a possible ~19.55% swing, read as evidence the market had already priced the result ahead of the print", "attribution": "Benzinga earnings coverage", "source_url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/26/08/60973145/ionq-posts-q2-double-beat-raises-2026-outlook-shares-rise", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "With the full three-name cluster now reported, the sector traded on individual fundamentals rather than as one basket: a clean beat drew a flat reaction, a roughly in-line print drew a small decline, and a genuine miss drew a sharp one — evidence against a pure sector-wide saturation read", "attribution": "This system's own synthesis of Benzinga, StockTitan and Seeking Alpha earnings coverage", "source_url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/RGTI/rigetti-computing-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-i812eesegntu.html", "source_tier": "B" },
        { "claim": "Mizuho cut its Rigetti price target from $33 to $27 (keeping an Outperform rating) and Canaccord cut its D-Wave target from $41 to $35 (keeping a Buy rating), both moves in the same direction as the two names' post-earnings share reactions rather than staying flat despite them — independent evidence for genuine fundamental discrimination rather than short-dated positioning; even after the week's roughly 20%+ snapback across all three names, the cluster remains down about 30% over the trailing month", "attribution": "Sell-side analyst notes via 24/7 Wall St. and Yahoo Finance coverage", "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/08/07/3-quantum-computing-stocks-with-the-most-analyst-upside-in-august/", "source_tier": "B" }
      ],
      "lifecycle_stage": "saturation",
      "first_logged": "2026-07-28",
      "last_reviewed": "2026-08-10",
      "status": "active"
    }
  ]
}